Eni, Fincantieri and RINA renew maritime decarbonization outlook for 3 years

Eni, Fincantieri and RINA presented the second edition of their Sustainable Maritime Transport Outlook in Rome, warning that regulatory uncertainty is slowing shipowners’ investment. The report says Europe is on track for faster emissions cuts than the rest of the world, but global progress depends on clearer rules, mature fuels and infrastructure.

Why it matters: - Maritime transport is facing a wider gap between Europe’s decarbonization push and the slower global response. - Regulatory uncertainty is now the biggest brake on investment by shipowners. - The report says LNG, biofuels and, later, synthetic fuels will all be needed to cut emissions at scale.

What happened: - Eni, Fincantieri and RINA presented the second edition of the Sustainable Maritime Transport Outlook in Rome. - Bain & Company Italy provided technical support for the report. - Eni, Fincantieri and RINA also signed an agreement to continue the Observatory’s work for the next three years.

The details: - The Outlook compares fuel and technology options for maritime decarbonization by emissions cuts, maturity, infrastructure availability and total cost of ownership through 2050. - The analysis draws on interviews with shipowners and operators representing about 40% of the container market and 20% of the cruise market. - The study also includes engine and propulsion suppliers covering more than 80% of the ICE market, plus ports and industry groups. - Under the reference case, “Today as Future,” Europe is projected to cut emissions intensity by 80% by 2050 versus 2020. - Global emissions intensity is projected to fall about 40% over the same period. - A slower case, “Decarbonization by 2070,” delays Europe’s target achievement until 2070, with the rest of the world trailing further behind. - Three of the four transition indicators worsened versus last year: the regulatory framework, macroeconomic conditions, and fuel and infrastructure availability. - Technological maturity remains supportive, but shipowners are increasingly favoring solutions that are already available. - The global IMO agreement has been postponed. - When countries are weighted by tonnage, almost 90% support a more gradual pathway. - The United States has taken a position against maritime decarbonization. - Europe has reaffirmed the targets already set under FuelEU Maritime. - Slower growth, tariffs and geopolitical tensions have made the economic backdrop less certain. - Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is adding risk to trade flows and the global economy. - The low-emission hydrogen value chain has lost momentum, and many maritime projects are on hold. - The orderbook for alternative-fuel vessels is still growing, but only gradually. - Synthetic fuels made from green hydrogen remain essential for a net-zero pathway, but they are still expensive and depend on an underdeveloped supply chain.

Between the lines: - The report’s core message is pragmatic rather than futuristic: the industry cannot wait for perfect solutions if mature options can cut emissions now. - Europe’s policy regime is creating a clearer investment case than the global market, where rules remain uneven. - The lower expected role for synthetic fuels reduces the estimated need for European port upgrades to about $15 billion, down from roughly $25 billion in the previous edition. - The cut is tied entirely to slower adoption of synthetic fuels. - The report suggests the transition will be built on multiple fuels, not a single winner. - Eni’s Enilive unit is among the leaders in HVO biofuel production from renewable feedstocks. - HVO, LNG and bio-LNG can use existing vessels and infrastructure to support near-term decarbonization. - Fincantieri is positioning ship design and propulsion flexibility as the main way to help owners adapt. - RINA is focusing on assessing technology maturity, feasibility, environmental performance and compliance. - Stakeholder interviews point to three recurring barriers: regulatory uncertainty, difficulty passing on higher fuel costs, and onshore bottlenecks.

What's next: - Europe is expected to keep moving faster than the rest of the world on emissions cuts. - Biofuels are projected to account for about one third of Europe’s 2050 fuel mix, alongside fossil and bio-LNG. - Synthetic fuels are expected to contribute about 20% of Europe’s decarbonization pathway. - Conventional fuels are still expected to account for about 70% of the global fuel mix in 2050. - First nuclear-powered vessels could enter service between 2040 and 2045. - Longer term, nuclear propulsion could matter for high-power, long-range vessel segments. - The report calls for stable global rules, predictable demand, reliable fuel volumes, more diversified feedstocks and continued R&D across the value chain.

The bottom line: - Maritime decarbonization is no longer a question of what technologies exist. It is now a question of which fuels, rules and investments can scale fast enough to match regulatory deadlines and market reality.